COVID-19 cases are ticking up in Toronto. Should you rush to get vaccinated?

New COVID-19 boosters are expected to roll out in Toronto and across Canada this fall.

Those new vaccines comeas early signals forecast Canada is potentially entering a fall COVID-19 wave, with positive COVID-19 tests and hospitalizations on the rise across the country, according to new data from thePublic Health Agency of Canada.

In Toronto, health officials are also tracking a small peak in some COVID-19 activity. The latest data from the cityshows the seven-day average of new cases and the number outbreaks in institutions have been slowly climbing over the past 30 days.

Despite that slight uptick, research shows that a majority of Canada'spopulation has developed some level of immunity against the virusthanks to high rates of vaccination. However, health experts warn there is still the potential for lasting health impacts from first or repeat infections such as long COVID, andnew subvariants could still pose risks.

Here's what you need to know about the population's level of protection, and whetheror not you should get the jab.

Is this uptick inCOVID-19 cases cause for concern?

Health officials say small waves of the virus are expectedthis time of year, especially as people start spending more time indoors as temperatures drop.

"We've seen this year after year after year now, that we are going to see a rise in cases predictably as we move from the summer into the fall," said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at University Health Network.

For now, Toronto Public Health (TPH) sayscommunity levels of transmission in Toronto remain relatively low, adding that current trends for the virus are currently no cause for concern.

"Every fall we see an increase in COVID activity...We'remonitoring the data and preparing if there might be an early start,"said Irene Armstrong, an associate medical office of health with the city's public health agency.

Dr. Fahad Razak,an internal medicine physician at St. Michael's Hospital, said subvariants play a role in the spread of the virus.

"We shouldn't be surprised. The virus mutates in order to survive," Razak said.

One subvariant in particular a lineage namedBA.2.86 has caught the attention of the medical community. In a tweet, the U.S. Centersfor Disease Control said it is monitoring the subvariant, whichwas first detected in the United States, Denmark and Israel.

"It is heavily, heavily mutated. This version of the virus has more than 30 mutations," Razak said.

Though it's unclear if the strain will cause more severe illness, Razak said it's one to "very carefully watch" over the coming weeks.

What is hybrid immunityand will it protect me?

Hybrid immunity is developed through a combination of both prior vaccination and infection, allowing peoples' immune systems to better detect and fight the virus.

A new study shows that three-quarters of the country had detectable antibodies from prior infections by March 2023.

Even with hybrid immunity, people can still catch COVID-19, Bogoch said. But their chances of developing a severe illness due to the virus are reduced.

It's important to note that antibodies developed through prior infections can wane and become tougher for a person's bodyto detect over time, health officials say.

Should I get the updated booster?

Booster shots could shore up Canadians' immunity this fall, particularly as drug makers have adapted their vaccines to better match currently circulating strains. Canada's national vaccine advisors havealready recommended getting an updated doseonce fresh vaccines do arrive.

Razak said the latest booster is expected to protect against all major subvariants of the virus, with the possible exception of theBA.2.86 strain.

If you're considered at high-risk, TPHrecommendsyou get the updated shot when it's available. High-risk individuals include seniors aged 65 and up, people living in long-term care homes, pregnant individuals, anyone with underlying medical conditions, people who are pregnant, andFirst Nations, Mtis and Inuit people.

For adults not at high risk, officials still recommend you get the jab. But health experts say it'sup to individuals to decide whether they want an extra layer of protection.

"There's a myriad of health-care providers that are available that can really help walk through some the intricaciesand nuances of individual clinical decisions," Bogoch said.

What if I'm behind on the last booster?

If you're not up to date on your boosters, the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) and Ontario's Ministry of Health are recommendingpeople who aren't high-risk to hold off on getting vaccinated until the fall boosters are rolled out.

The next round of vaccines will likely be monovalent meaning they will specifically target theOmicron family of sub-lineages, NACI said in July.

Because they can better target the strains that are circulating, Armstrong said the updated vaccine "should provide better coverage"than the current vaccines.

When are the boosters rolling out?

Thatnext wave ofbooster shots isn't yet approved in either Canada or the U.S.

Experts warn those vaccines could still be weeks away from approval but are expected to be released at some point this fall.