Kenney's close call: How the conservative grassroots put Alberta's premier on notice

Early in the new year, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney stood at a podium taking questions about his jet-setting caucus members enjoying foreign travel during a pandemic. On that dayhe was unequivocal: The buck stops with him.

That phrase stuck with discontentedUnited Conservative Partymembers already frustrated by many of the premier's recent decisions and it got them thinking about holding him to his word.

January brought a fresh set of challenges for Alberta'sUCP government, such as the public outcry overstrictpandemichealth measures and intense blowbackoverits coal mining policy. And while top Alberta governmentofficials looked for ways to turn the page, some in the party were musing about whether it was time to turn the page onKenney himself.

"We definitely talked about a leadership review," one constituency president from southern Alberta told CBC News.

Other constituency associations were taking a hard look at the premier's track record and having the same conversation.

CBC News spoke to nineUCP constituency association presidents and members of constituency associationboardsfrom across the province. CBC has agreed not to name some of them as they were not authorized to speak publicly about party matters.

Most of those who spoke to CBCsaid their associationboards had talked aboutwhether it was time to look for a new leader. One riding associationpresident said that about 80 per cent of theirboard expresseddissatisfactionwith the party's leadership.

Others said thatwhile they'd heard rumblings of unhappiness with Kenney, their own boards had not talked abouttriggering a review.

"I would say that people are sick of COVID. They're not sick of Kenney,'' saidAdam Waterman, constituency president for Vermillion-Lloydminster-Wainwright. He estimated that about 10 per cent of his members have considered calling for a leadershipreview.

Members of those constituencyboards considering a review said the idea has faded into the backgroundfor now, for several reasons: the UCP hasno obvious candidate to succeed Kenney, there's littletime to get a new leader up to speed before the2023election, and internal partydisputes could boosttheNDP's chances of victory.

"Do we change or fix what we have?" one constituency association president asked.

'Death by a thousand cuts'

Constituencyassociation presidents saidparty memberswill be watching the premier closely this year to see if he can changecourse. His approval rating has dropped significantly since the election and the party's poll numbers have droppedalong with it.

"There have been some blunders," a long-time constituency associationpresident said.

The constituencypresidents expressed concern about recent decisions such asthe one to rescind the 1976 coal policy, which protected parts of the Rocky Mountains from mining. The UCP government swiftly reinstated the policy last month in the face of mounting criticism.

They also pointed tothe confrontational nature of some of the province's interactions with doctors, confusing communication on public health restrictions and the COVID-19 situation in long-term care facilities.

Other constituency association members in rural areas said thatmany members believe public health restrictions to control the pandemic have had adisproportionately heavy impact ontheir regions and have damagedbusinesses unnecessarily.

"This is the challenge that the premier has ... there isn't one item to fix. It's going to be death by a thousand cuts," one rural member said.

Premier Kenney's office said he and the government already havedelivered on 75 per cent of their 2019 election promises, despite the added challenges of the pandemicand the associatedeconomic downturn.

"The UCP has always been a grassroots, member-driven party and members are always encouraged to be active and have their say," said a statement from Kenney's office.

Under a new UCP resolutionpassedat the party's most recent general meeting, a leadership review could happen sometime in 2021 or 2022. But the party hasn't said when that rule will come into effect, orwhether it willbe applied to this election cycle.

Constituency associations cantrigger a special meeting for a leadership vote; if Kenneyfailed tohit 50 per cent support in such a vote, the party would launcha leadership election.

Right now, however, no constituencyassociation appears to wantto be the first to go public with the idea in part because of the awkward timing of a leadership campaign in the middle of a public health crisis. All the UCPmembers CBC spoke to said they've decided to put the idea of a leadership review on hold for now, but many want to see significant changes from Kenney.

"We've got work to do, there's no doubt about it," an urban constituency president said."The leader and MLAs need to make sure they're doing what they can to be more appealing."

Some associations have begun to pressure the partytopick a dayfor the next fixed date leadership review. While manyhave hit pause on the notionuntil then, some members are not content to wait and are actively lobbying others to organize to force a review.

The premier appears to be getting the message.

Kenney has been holding frequent Zoom meetings lasting anhourorlonger with regional, provincial and individual constituency boards since the new year. Even more calls are scheduled for the coming weeks.

One constituencypresident said that his fellow membersused to see Kenneyonly onceevery few months. Another said the premierbeen more accessible in 2021 than ever before.

Several memberssaid that, during those online conferences with constituency boards, thepremier has taken heavy criticism whileanswering questions and acknowledgingthemistakes of the past year.

"We are very blunt with him, sometimes crass," one said. "But Kenney needed to hear it."

Now,they're waiting to see what he does with the information they've given him.

Battles on both fronts

"He has a fight on his hands," said Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary.

"How do you govern a province in the middle of a pandemic, in the middle of escalating budget deficits ... [while] protecting your own flank and trying to protect your own job from within?"

Rural constituency associations saw the mostintense discussions abouta leadership review, while many urban associations discussed it but didn't give it serious consideration, the presidents said.

Bratt saidKenney and the UCP need tokeep 90 per cent of rural ridings onside in order to secureanother majority government.

An urban board member said any leader would falter occasionallyduring a global crisis.

"It's always easier to make that decision sitting in your living room. It's not so easy when you're the one who has to pacify 4.5 million people."

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But some of the constituency associationcomplaints about Kenney predatethe pandemic.

A board member from the riding of Taber-Warner recently resigned, saying the actions of Kenney and his government often run counter tothe founding principles of the UCP.

"It's just a continual build here and the bizarre inconsistencies, the turnabout on some of the policies They look like absolute fools," Brian Hildebrand told CBC News.

"When leadership is at odds with the stated principles of the organization, there's a conflict."

A rival on the right

As rumblings of discontent with Kenney spread within the UCP, the Wildrose Independence Party (WIP) saw an opportunity to expand its circle.

One UCP constituency association president said some of their board members have been approached by Paul Hinman, the WIP's interim leader, to gauge their interest in switching parties. Hildebrandalso hashad conversations with WIP members.

Hinman confirmed to CBC News that he's had discussions with people on UCP boards. Sometimes, he said, those conversations have beeninitiated by the UCPmembers themselves.

Alberta's conservatives have a recent history of dumping leaders who don't meet their expectations.

The province has seen six premiers in the last 15 years. Alison Redford resigned in 2014 during a brewing caucus revolt, In 2011, Ed Stelmachannouncedhe wouldn't run againafter turmoil in the party(including two MLAs crossingthe floor). EvenRalph Klein resigned in 2006 after getting lukewarm support in a leadership review.

Kenneyultimately benefits from being the founderof the party, Bratt said. He also pointed out what he sees as a pattern inconservative party mergers like the one that created the United Conservative Partythrough the merger of the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties in 2017.

"Parties merge when they're in opposition and disintegrate when they're in power," he said.

Many constituencypresidents said Kenney needs to learn from his mistakes and stay connected to the grassroots.

While forcing a leadership review isn't on the immediate agenda, they're not ruling it out for a future date.

"Let him do the job and get through it," said one president,"and then we'll see if he's earned the job."