3 reasons why Surrey could ditch its new police service and 3 reasons why it wouldn't

Monday evening, Surrey council voted in favour of taking the next steptowardthe future of policing in its municipality.

If that sounds familiar, it's because it is Surrey has held plenty of debates and votes over the last four years to approve and implement an independent police force. It's now started a similar process to trytoend the Surrey Police Serviceand return the city to the RCMP'sjurisdiction.

The vote on Monday directsstaff to create a final plan for keeping the RCMP and present it to council for another vote in the middle of December 2022, which will then be sent to the province.

But a final decision won't be made until 2023. In the interim, here are three reasons why Surrey might end up ditching its new police force and three reasons why it might stick around.

Why it could go

1. Brenda Locke wants it

The most obvious reason for Surrey making the change is that it's the number one priority of the new mayor, who has a majority of support on council.

Brenda Locke has campaigned for the abolition of the Surrey Police Service since it was officially created in 2020 and defeated former Mayor Doug McCallum on the back of that promise. After becoming mayor, she took immediate steps to stop the transition and freeze hiring and spending by the new SPS on a 5-4 council vote. And that's important because

2. Province cares about municipal legitimacy

The B.C. government is ultimately in charge of approving the changing of policing plans in the province, so Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth could reject Surrey's request.

But that would break with general practice in B.C. politics, where provincial governments generally try not to override the decisions of local officials in areas where those officialshave more responsibility. And it would break with the precedent in Surrey just three years ago when Farnworth approved Surrey's previous plan to establish the SPS.

3. Not too late to change

The SPS has come a long way in its two years of existence, and now has 315 officers (168 of whom are on active duty) and had a budget of $72 million this year.

At the same time, Locke and others have argued the move to the SPS hasn't passed the point of no return. More than 75 per cent of on-duty officers in Surrey are still with the RCMP, and the RCMP still retain command of forces and control of infrastructure.

Eliminating the SPS would take time and cost money but Surrey staff have argued that if stopped immediately, the biggest issue would be hiring back enough people to the local RCMP force.

Why it could stay

1. Locke's mandate is much smaller

In 2018 when McCallum became mayor, he defeated his nearest challenger by more than 17,000 votes, and the subsequent council motion to leave the RCMP was unanimous.

But when Locke became mayor last month, she defeated McCallum by less than 1,000 votes, and it was only a 5-4 council vote to stop the transition.

In other words, the government could rule that Surrey is much more split on the decision to keep the RCMP than it was on the original decision to ditch it.

2. Province could have too many concerns

Thus far, Farnworth has indicated the biggest threat to Surrey's proposal is if they determine the overall details are lacking.

And thus far, the biggest question concerns expenses. The Surrey Police Board has put together a financial backgrounder that estimates unrecoverable sunk costs into the transition will be as high as $107 million by the end of 2022 and that it could cost an additional $81.5 million in employment severance for the 300+ hired staff.

3. RCMP's time has come and gone

Earlier this year, an all-party provincial committee explicitly set up to investigate police reform recommended that B.C. ditch the RCMP in favour of a provincial police force.

In addition, Surrey is the largest city in Canada that continues to be under RCMP jurisdiction, with every other major city in the country outside B.C. under local police control or part of a regional or provincial police service.

That isn't to say the province won't support Surrey's current desire to stay with the national police force.

But it does indicate how it would break with prevailing trends.