Why the rise of the B.C. Conservative Party could change the province's political dynamic

For a group that last held power in 1952, it's been a heady week for the B.C. Conservative Party.

Last week, a poll conducted by Mainstreet Research among 601 adults in B.C. found the party would receive 21 per cent of the vote if an election was held now higher than the official opposition B.C. United party.

(For comparison purposes only, a randomized sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points.)

On Wednesday, the Conservativesadded to their momentum by adding Abbotsford South MLA Bruce Banman, as he defected from United months after now-leader John Rustad did the same.

"I believe B.C. needs a leader who is a straight-up, decent human being, and a party that's willing to put politics aside to stand for what's right," Banmansaid.

"Stand for what's right" is always in the eye of the beholder.

But what's clear is there's a growing debate in B.C. over who stands for the right side on the political spectrum in a way that hasn't been seen in this province for more than a generation.

Former B.C. United MLA says he needs 'more information' on climate change

12 months ago

Duration 3:01

In a statement announcing his defection to the Conservative Party of B.C., Abbotsford South MLA Bruce Banman said he doesn't support "policies like the punishing carbon tax."

Can a centre-right brokerage party succeed?

Broadly speaking, for the last 70 years B.C. politics has been defined by the provincial NDP on one side of the political spectrum, and a centre-right party defined by its opposition on the other.

Whether it's B.C. United, their previous identity as the B.C. Liberals, or the Social Credit Party that ran B.C. for decades, the party tried to attract a coalition of federal Conservatives and Liberals, with a mixture of policies that may have skewed to the right, but were usually intended to appeal to both groups.

That sort of combination wasn't seen in any other major Canadian province and in an era with increased polarization and populism, might be more difficult than ever to pull off.

"There's a division going on in society right now, where I think the notion of a coalition party is not what it used to be," said Angelo Isidorou, executive director for the B.C. Conservatives.

Isidorou worked with Aaron Gunn on his leadership for the then-B.C. Liberals before he was disqualified, and argued "there was definitely a void" for a truly authentic conservative option.

Allie Blades, a campaign strategist for Mash Strategy who worked on leadership campaigns with B.C. United and Pierre Poilievre's federal leadership campaign, said the B.C. Conservatives were talking about issues in a more populist way and through more grassroots mediums in a way that's connecting.

"I received a text message from a friend of mine this morning that I think encompasses this perfectly and he said,'I'm a Conservative, and if there is no longer a coalition, then I need to return to my family,'" she said.

"So I think a lot of Conservatives within the big tent of B.C. United are really trying to figure out where home is."

Election 13 months away

The B.C. Liberals faced a similar challenge in 2012, when another Abbotsford South MLA, John van Dongen,defected to the party when it was in a similar position in the polls.

But the party quickly declined amidstinfighting, and the Liberals were able to reassert their dominance in the 2013 election, winning a fourth straight term.

With the provincial election scheduled13 months from now, Blades said United should focus on pushing their brand recognition, while the Conservatives should try and expand their potential base of support.

"[Banman and Rustad] are two very similar MLAs, and their goal would have to bring in new talent with their candidate selection process."

Isidorou said the party would work hard to field candidates in all 93 provincial ridings.

But even in a most populist era, there's no guarantee of success.

After all, Isidorou has been part of two groups in recent years the People's Party of Canadaand revamped Non-Partisan Association of Vancouver that have attempted to offer a more conservative vision, only for those parties to be marredby feuds and voters strongly rejecting them at the polls.

Asked what he's learned from those experiences, he said: "I'd say slow and steady scaling the organization, building a good team, being more open to people who come from different backgrounds, just being more transparent."

As for the NDP?

From a short-term political standpoint, they're likely watching a brewing fight with a bag of popcorn in hand.

"This has to be good news for the NDP. It can't really be spun any other way. This is a divided opposition," said Stewart Prest, a political science lecture at the University of British Columbia.

"Until a clear challenger emerges on the right, the NDP has that much more cushion to govern but a year is a long time in politics."